Mortgage Rates Rally on Weak Economic Data
Mortgage rates began the week on a bad note but reversed course today following a weak read on the housing sector. The National Association of Realtors this morning released Existing Home Sales data for July. This data totals the number of previously owned homes in which a sale closed during the prior month. Since the expiration of the home buyer tax credit, home sales have fallen significantly and many economists have lowered their economic forecasts. This report was horrible. There is no other way to describe it… Existing Home sales fell by a record 27.2% in July to an annualized pace of only 3.83 million home sales. This was far short of expectations. Making matters worse, the June report was revised lower, from 5.37million to 5.26 million. The report also indicated that supply of homes…(read more)
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Mortgage Rates Mixed After Scattered Lender Reprices
Much like yesterday, mortgage rates rallied early this morning following weak housing data. Much like yesterday, mortgage rates came under pressure in the lunch hours today as mortgage-backed securities prices fell from intraday highs. Much UNLIKE yesterday, mortgage rates never recovered from that weakness heading into the market close today. The bad news isn't all that bad though…. While several lenders did reprice for the worse this afternoon, the majority of rate sheets escaped unscathed. This leaves mortgage rates close to the most aggressive levels of our lifetime. As for the lenders who did reprice for the worse (the bad news), adjustments to loan pricing simply cancelled out the improvements seen this morning, leaving consumer borrowing costs unchanged on a day over day basis…(read more)
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Mortgage Rates Marginally Worse After Jobless Claims Data
Poor reads on housing and manufacturing helped mortgage rates move back to historic lows yesterday. However as the day progressed mortgage-backed securities prices fell from their highs and some lenders were forced to reprice for the worse. Rate sheet recalls were not broad based though. We had only one economic report this morning: Weekly Jobless Claims. Released by the Department of Labor, this report provides three timely metrics on the health of the labor market: Initial Jobless Claims: totals the number of Americans who filed for first time unemployment benefits in the previous week Continued Claims: totals the number of Americans who continue to file for benefits due to an inability to find a new job Extended and Emergency Benefits: totals the number of Americans who have exhausted their…(read more)
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Mortgage Rates End Losing Streak After Reprices for Better
Mortgage rates extended their losing streak to three (3) days yesterday. The losses were brought on by a rally in the stock market. Mortgage-backed securities price moved steadily lower throughout the day before closing at their session lows. Most lenders ended up repricing for the worse as a result. Two economic data releases moved mortgage rates today. First up were Weekly Jobless claims. Released by the Department of Labor, this report provides three timely metrics on the health of the labor market: Initial Jobless Claims: totals the number of Americans who filed for first time unemployment benefits in the previous week Continued Claims: totals the number of Americans who continue to file for benefits due to an inability to find a new job Extended and Emergency Benefits : totals the number…(read more)
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Mortgage Rates React to Data! Potentially Choppy Waters Ahead
From 10,000 feet the story of the week was " Mortgage Rates Rebound from Losing Streak ", but when you look closer, I think the bigger story was " Mortgage Rates React to Economic Data. Twice! ". Once for the worse, once for the better. Yesterday was the better and it was the reason why mortgage rates rebounded from their three day losing streak. Since mortgage rates have basically moved (lower) at will for the majority of the summer, I think we should stop and call attention to the times when mortgage rates actually react to economic data. Not because I feel the bond market is trying to tell us the economic environment is fundamentally worse or better (LONG TERM OUTLOOK) , but because I think the bond market is telling us it is looking for some directional guidance (SHORT…(read more)
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Mortgage Rates on Losing Streak. Near Term Bottom Likely Hit
Mortgage rates are on a bit of a losing streak! Spurred on by a dramatic decline in benchmark debt yields, mortgage rates touched new lows last week. Actually I don't know if I should say mortgage rates hit new lows. Instead, maybe I should say "more lenders were offering record low mortgage rates last week". Yes a few lenders were spotted quoting 4.00% base rates, but the majority of the market was still pricing par mortgage loans at 4.25%. A well-qualified borrower's "best execution" combination of rates and points remained 4.375%. Whatever dip there was ended up being quick because lenders filled their production buckets fast and loan pricing started to suffer on Friday. Since then rates have slowly risen to levels just above record lows (still super aggressive…(read more)
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Lenders Reprice For The Better. Rates At Record Lows Again.
Mortgage rates were priced at the most aggressive levels of our era on Wednesday following a steady stream of disappointing housing data that sent stock indexes lower. Rates did back up a few basis points yesterday for what seemed like no reason besides rally exhaustion, but we got those losses back today… Consumer borrowing costs were influenced by two economic reports today. First out was the final revision to first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is the broadest measure of total economic activity. It reports on the output of every economic sector. It's basically our economic report card. A rapidly growing economy can lead to price inflation, the bond market prefers stable growth while stocks generally enjoy a faster pace of economic expansion. We receive three different assessments…(read more)
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Mortgage Rates Improve Again. What Will Move Borrowing Costs in the Week Ahead?
Mortgage rates hit the lowest levels of a lifetime last week. The most aggressive loan pricing was seen on Wednesday following a string of weaker than expected housing data. While mortgage rates did rise a few basis points on Thursday, consumer borrowing costs generally recovered on Friday. After lenders repriced for the better, mortgage rates closed the week near the best levels witnessed on Wednesday. HERE is a recap. Just like last week, the economic calendar in the week ahead is not jammed packed but it does contain a couple of influential data points. The most important release comes on Friday morning with the Official Employment Situation Report. Things got started slow with only one economic release today: Personal Income and Outlays . This monthly report provides market watchers with…(read more)
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Mortgage Rates Steady at Lifetime Lows
The relentless mortgage rate rally continued yesterday. Lenders were seen offering the most aggressive loan pricing of our lifetime, again, as stocks extended their losing streak and risk-averse investors piled funds into government guaranteed U.S. Treasuries. High demand for risk free has bonds led mortgage-backed securities to record prices, allowing lenders to price mortgage rates at the lowest rates reported since the formation of the secondary mortgage market. Out early this morning was the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Applications Survey. The MBA loan applications survey covers over 50% of all US residential mortgage apps taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Survey data gives economists a sample of consumer demand for mortgage loans. In a low mortgage…(read more)
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What Will Move Mortgage Rates In The Week Ahead?
Mortgage rates just had another one of those "back and forth" weeks. Fortunately, while the road was rocky (lots of reprice alerts), total consumer borrowing costs went into the weekend near their most aggressive levels of the year, only slightly above record lows. The latest round of "ups and downs" was different though. Since early April mortgage rates have generally mirrored the movements of stocks. As equities rallied, loan pricing worsened and mortgage rates rose. As stocks sold, loan pricing improved and mortgage rates fell. This relationship generally dictated the direction of mortgage rates, that is until late last week when the "stock lever" began to lose its predictive abilities. Although the economic calendar isn't jammed packed in the week ahead…(read more)
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